OGUR
0x2c4e99fc94a89efab46ce3909a52d11573d49e0b
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $36.9k
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $946.59
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.885 | 0.900 | $706.08 | +$11.50 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.745 | $239.98 | −$14.50 |
| Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? · No | 0.177 | 0.092 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30? · No | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? · No | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET · Down | 0.247 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$545.10at 0.386Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?
- +$257.46at 0.180Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
- +$213.47at 0.331Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$177.56at 0.375Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$173.28at 0.708Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 12:51 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.51 |
| 09-14 14:13 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7899999735 | $4.48 |
| 09-14 14:12 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7899999998 | $250.00 |
| 09-13 13:32 | Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.1769999848 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 13:49 | Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.36 | $324.00 |
| 09-02 21:05 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9216113437 | $185.00 |
| 09-02 21:04 | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.06 | $38.42 |
| 09-02 21:04 | Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.226 | $147.39 |
| 09-02 21:02 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.92 | $242.52 |
| 08-11 14:46 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8340660321 | $267.06 |
| 08-11 14:29 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $98.57 |
| 08-11 14:12 | Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.0226296923 | $1.47 |
| 08-11 14:05 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.33 | $75.00 |
| 08-11 14:04 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.261 | $70.26 |
| 08-05 13:01 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30? | BUY | 0.0242627787 | $11.00 |