0x2c31a9dad2314a3e4756895f8b176593add6a9bf
0x2c31a9dad2314a3e4756895f8b176593add6a9bf
- Realised P&L
- $-17.23
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $34.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? · Yes | 0.606 | 1.000 | $8.25 | +$3.25 |
| Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montreal · No | 0.665 | 1.000 | $7.52 | +$2.52 |
| Spread: Rams (-8.5) · Broncos | 0.800 | 1.000 | $6.25 | +$1.25 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.855 | $5.62 | +$0.62 |
| Will Houston have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · U 8.5 | 0.520 | 0.515 | $4.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Jayden Reed have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.190 | $1.79 | +$1.79 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.004 | $0.14 | −$9.86 |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz · Carlos Alcaraz | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.24at 0.176Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
- +$19.83at 0.207Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$19.55at 0.207Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife
- +$11.51at 0.309Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$8.37at 0.381Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 00:10 | Spread: Rams (-8.5) | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 03:18 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 04:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 08-26 21:52 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 08-25 01:16 | Will Jayden Reed have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 08-18 07:22 | Will Naoya Kihara win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.1019999834 | $5.00 |
| 08-14 03:59 | Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.6059999583 | $5.00 |
| 08-13 05:31 | Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montreal | BUY | 0.6649999993 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 22:46 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 08-09 07:49 | Will Houston have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | BUY | 0.5199999834 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 21:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $2.14 |
| 08-01 21:22 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.27 | $4.82 |
| 08-01 21:22 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.94 |
| 08-01 21:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $5.10 |
| 08-01 21:21 | Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? | SELL | 0.97 | $5.27 |