retardio420
0x2bbcd3222bc72229a4cff6278010b6051127d633
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $16.1k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$697.26at 0.480EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?
- +$263.51at 0.794LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$191.45at 0.917US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$104.20at 0.898US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$92.00at 0.770Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 22:18 | CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31? | BUY | 0.8299999993 | $200.00 |
| 09-21 16:09 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8978328164 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 16:09 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8891991928 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 16:08 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.893 | $15.62 |
| 09-21 07:28 | Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | BUY | 0.8299999996 | $366.00 |
| 09-10 01:12 | LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7819999991 | $500.00 |
| 09-10 01:12 | LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.782 | $500.00 |
| 09-01 15:24 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | SELL | 0.9401453559 | $194.04 |
| 09-01 11:46 | Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.8986405397 | $200.00 |
| 09-01 11:38 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | BUY | 0.9690309667 | $200.00 |
| 09-01 11:33 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 09-01 11:32 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $32.80 |
| 09-01 11:32 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $34.80 |
| 09-01 11:28 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8166302205 | $300.00 |
| 09-01 11:27 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9034481187 | $200.00 |