0x2BB662DcF684288b277487d551Bb2B94Bfd685b2-1731641046287
0x2bb662dcf684288b277487d551bb2b94bfd685b2
- Realised P&L
- $-650.44
- Volume
- $20.1k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $12.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.245 | $12.25 | +$7.75 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.060 | $0.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? · No | 0.121 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.21 |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? · Down | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.80 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.62 |
| US congress stock trading ban in Trump's first 100 days? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.08 |
| Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.44 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? · No | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.12 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.41at 0.170Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
- +$23.81at 0.206Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
- +$3.51at 0.649Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.25at 0.610Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$1.67at 0.750'Wicked' grosses 2x more than 'Gladiator 2' on opening weekend?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 03:03 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.9099999921 | $4.60 |
| 06-26 08:21 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.20T and $1.30T on June 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.49 |
| 06-26 05:27 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.081 | $1.62 |
| 06-25 13:27 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 06-25 05:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 06-24 19:48 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 19:47 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 06-24 02:18 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |
| 06-23 15:20 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 06-23 12:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.08 |
| 06-23 11:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? | BUY | 0.036 | $0.18 |
| 06-23 11:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.32 |
| 06-23 05:12 | Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $6.00 |
| 06-23 05:10 | SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? | BUY | 0.53 | $31.80 |
| 12-04 03:39 | Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? | BUY | 0.0343612253 | $4.00 |