JackStraw
0x2bae96f2e37f5474016f754c0ade0f6012892e92
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $199.6k
- Markets traded
- 428
- Open portfolio
- $282.33
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded428
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue wave in 2026? · Yes | 0.729 | 0.825 | $66.25 | +$7.74 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.470 | 0.595 | $59.50 | +$12.50 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.255 | $51.00 | −$45.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.680 | 0.992 | $49.59 | +$15.60 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.125 | $31.25 | −$26.25 |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.495 | $24.74 | +$3.25 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.50 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.647 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$388.00 |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · No | 0.666 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$133.20 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$382.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.188Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$1.5kat 0.273Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
- +$1.3kat 0.202Trump wins every swing state?
- +$1.2kat 0.613Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
- +$912.57at 0.497Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 01:31 | Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 08-24 01:27 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 08-16 02:13 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $48.10 |
| 08-16 02:05 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.15 | $45.00 |
| 08-10 01:00 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.47 | $47.00 |
| 07-03 15:58 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.63 | $189.00 |
| 06-14 14:35 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |
| 06-14 14:34 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $330.00 |
| 06-14 14:31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.6 | $110.78 |
| 06-14 14:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $133.38 |
| 05-17 22:50 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.47 | $47.00 |
| 05-17 00:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.72 | $144.00 |
| 05-11 20:55 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $187.71 |
| 05-11 20:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL | 0.992 | $496.00 |
| 05-01 00:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.20 |