JackStraw
0x2bae96f2e37f5474016f754c0ade0f6012892e92
- Realised P&L
- $3.9k
- Volume
- $198.5k
- Markets traded
- 423
- Open portfolio
- $639.38
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded423
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No | 0.510 | 1.000 | $261.39 | +$128.01 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.605 | $181.50 | −$7.50 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.205 | $61.50 | −$51.50 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.210 | $52.50 | −$5.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No | 0.820 | 0.875 | $43.75 | +$2.75 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.680 | 0.775 | $38.74 | +$4.75 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.647 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$388.00 |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · No | 0.666 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$133.20 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$382.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.188Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$1.5kat 0.273Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
- +$1.3kat 0.202Trump wins every swing state?
- +$1.2kat 0.613Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
- +$912.57at 0.497Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 15:58 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.63 | $189.00 |
| 06-14 14:35 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |
| 06-14 14:34 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $330.00 |
| 06-14 14:31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.6 | $110.78 |
| 06-14 14:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $133.38 |
| 05-17 22:50 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.47 | $47.00 |
| 05-17 00:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.72 | $144.00 |
| 05-11 20:55 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $187.71 |
| 05-11 20:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL | 0.992 | $496.00 |
| 05-01 00:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.20 |
| 04-29 14:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.65 | $260.00 |
| 04-29 14:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.85 | $425.00 |
| 04-29 14:03 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $58.00 |
| 04-29 14:02 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $497.00 |
| 04-29 13:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9928549836 | $1.2k |