0x2ba048e2bf993e3bba264ede5e0319cfde8a93fd
0x2ba048e2bf993e3bba264ede5e0319cfde8a93fd
- Realised P&L
- $-7.21
- Volume
- $234.14
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $5.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.425 | $3.27 | +$1.27 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.845 | $2.12 | +$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.35at 0.379Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$2.11at 0.492Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
- +$1.96at 0.510S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 02:26 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.88 |
| 09-17 23:44 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 15:39 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999063 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 07:30 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 12:42 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 08:06 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 19:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 11:17 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 16:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 05:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 09:22 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 23:14 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6739999016 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 15:12 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 05:49 | Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 20:40 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |