0x2ba048e2bf993e3bba264ede5e0319cfde8a93fd
- Realised P&L
- $7.52
- Volume
- $107.71
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $20.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.630 | 1.000 | $3.17 | +$1.17 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.855 | $3.05 | +$1.09 |
| Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.470 | 0.520 | $2.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.835 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? · No | 0.700 | 0.695 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? · No | 0.340 | 0.335 | $1.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.460 | $1.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.425 | $1.42 | −$0.58 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.320 | 0.135 | $0.84 | −$1.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.70at 0.230Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.41at 0.370Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$1.95at 0.480Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.91at 0.660Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 07:16 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 23:15 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 15:14 | Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4699998919 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 07:13 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 23:13 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 23:12 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 15:12 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 07:11 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 10:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:54 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 18:44 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.7249999191 | $1.12 |
| 08-02 07:23 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.659999918 | $1.77 |
| 08-01 23:21 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 15:05 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 06:01 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |