PolyBot

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Traders

0x2ba048e2bf993e3bba264ede5e0319cfde8a93fd

Realised P&L
$7.52
Volume
$107.71
Markets traded
28
Open portfolio
$20.55

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded28
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample19 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes0.6301.000$3.17+$1.17
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes0.5500.855$3.05+$1.09
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.4700.520$2.21+$0.21
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No0.8000.835$2.09+$0.09
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? · No0.7000.695$1.99$0.01
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? · No0.3400.335$1.97$0.03
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · Yes0.4800.460$1.92$0.08
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes0.3600.330$1.83$0.17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No0.6000.425$1.42$0.58
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.3200.135$0.84$1.16

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-06 07:16Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?BUY0.3399999422$2.00
08-05 23:15Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?BUY0.479999952$2.00
08-05 15:14Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.4699998919$2.00
08-05 07:13Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?BUY0.59999994$2.00
08-04 23:13Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?BUY0.7$2.00
08-04 23:12Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?BUY0.3699999112$2.00
08-04 15:12Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?BUY0.3599999208$2.00
08-04 07:11Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?BUY0.8$2.00
08-03 10:55US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.32$2.00
08-03 02:54Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?BUY0.8$2.00
08-02 18:44Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?BUY0.7249999191$1.12
08-02 07:23Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?BUY0.659999918$1.77
08-01 23:21Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?BUY0.229999916$2.00
08-01 15:05Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.6299999181$2.00
08-01 06:01Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?BUY0.5$1.53