aaabbb
0x2b51107e8d030397ea728a794405ffbcf1d2e165
- Realised P&L
- $19.3k
- Volume
- $13.46M
- Markets traded
- 1,257
- Open portfolio
- $61.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,257
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.242 | 0.215 | $34.5k | −$4.4k |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.154 | $7.6k | +$2.8k |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.205 | $6.5k | +$557.43 |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.087 | $4.5k | +$456.39 |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.051 | $2.5k | −$1.0k |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.042 | $2.1k | −$69.52 |
| Saints vs. Ravens · Ravens | 0.800 | 0.785 | $1.2k | −$22.50 |
| Eagles vs. Titans · Eagles | 0.760 | 0.755 | $755.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.143 | 0.135 | $727.14 | −$44.78 |
| Jaguars vs. Broncos · Jaguars | 0.430 | 0.415 | $415.00 | −$15.00 |
| Lions vs. Bills · Lions | 0.340 | 0.305 | $305.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · No | 0.170 | 0.165 | $206.25 | −$6.25 |
| Ravens vs. Chiefs · Ravens | 0.587 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Chiefs vs. Broncos · Chiefs | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.5kat 0.1602024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$62.3kat 0.089Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$33.3kat 0.078Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$7.6kat 0.530NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks
- +$7.2kat 0.435Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 06:40 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $212.50 |
| 09-16 06:40 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1433135854 | $771.92 |
| 09-16 05:41 | Eagles vs. Titans | BUY | 0.76 | $760.00 |
| 09-16 05:40 | Jaguars vs. Broncos | BUY | 0.43 | $430.00 |
| 09-16 05:39 | Saints vs. Ravens | BUY | 0.8 | $1.2k |
| 09-16 05:39 | Lions vs. Bills | BUY | 0.34 | $340.00 |
| 09-16 05:36 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0883928843 | $1.7k |
| 09-14 15:32 | Broncos vs. Chiefs | BUY | 0.46 | $322.00 |
| 09-13 15:56 | Bills vs. Texans | BUY | 0.53 | $265.00 |
| 09-13 15:56 | Bills vs. Texans | SELL | 0.52 | $260.00 |
| 09-13 15:54 | Commanders vs. Eagles | BUY | 0.7 | $350.00 |
| 09-13 15:54 | Commanders vs. Eagles | BUY | 0.7 | $700.00 |
| 09-13 15:53 | Ravens vs. Colts | BUY | 0.61 | $305.00 |
| 09-13 15:52 | Bills vs. Texans | SELL | 0.52 | $260.00 |
| 09-13 10:29 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | SELL | 0.69 | $345.00 |