0x2b240
0x2b240b8e098f3701ae34fcbc749059c07adc1586
- Realised P&L
- $888.44
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $22.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.476 | 0.435 | $22.17 | −$2.11 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$387.93at 0.580Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30?
- +$233.55at 0.428Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be less than $481,000 on June 30?
- +$118.52at 0.573Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $484,000 and $487,000 on May 31?
- +$79.40at 0.557Will the median home value in New York City be between $602,000 and $607,000 on May 31?
- +$72.63at 0.638Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,181,000 and $1,190,000 on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 14:37 | Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $21.60 |
| 09-16 14:36 | Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.68 |
| 07-24 23:56 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 24? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 07-24 15:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 24? | BUY | 0.66 | $13.20 |
| 07-06 21:30 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2399999986 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 05:18 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $20.60 |
| 06-29 05:17 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | SELL | 0.38 | $1.83 |
| 06-29 05:15 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | SELL | 0.39 | $16.71 |
| 06-29 05:10 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.5468470736 | $26.07 |
| 06-29 05:09 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $65.99 |
| 06-29 05:08 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $66.00 |
| 06-29 05:08 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $66.03 |
| 06-29 05:07 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $66.04 |
| 06-29 01:00 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.58 | $20.75 |
| 06-29 00:58 | Will the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.57 | $18.26 |