2126ttc
0x2af5fc7731e7757c6dd5c6f898ccba074f3682de
- Realised P&L
- $818.58
- Volume
- $22.2k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $315.59
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2026 NFC North? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.305 | $217.69 | +$117.69 |
| Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.979 | $97.90 | +$15.90 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic · Novak Djokovic | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$541.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$785.77at 0.618Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$204.40at 0.710Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer?
- +$175.68at 0.740US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$103.18at 0.757Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
- +$93.41at 0.616Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 23:17 | US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.85 | $541.20 |
| 08-12 21:19 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $71.31 |
| 08-12 21:18 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | SELL | 0.05 | $35.71 |
| 07-15 16:14 | Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2026 NFC North? | BUY | 0.1401091345 | $100.00 |
| 06-06 02:40 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | BUY | 0.2099999968 | $50.00 |
| 06-06 02:39 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY | 0.0373652688 | $50.00 |
| 06-06 02:39 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.6268656714 | $100.00 |
| 06-06 02:38 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.1103171342 | $100.00 |
| 06-05 18:26 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.277 | $8.31 |
| 06-05 18:26 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.24 | $45.07 |
| 06-05 18:26 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $100.00 |
| 06-05 18:25 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5554657312 | $100.00 |
| 06-04 23:12 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 23:02 | Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | BUY | 0.9528011148 | $661.77 |
| 04-07 23:01 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.9599999962 | $100.00 |