0x2af01Ed18869D9b35F9a7dE71C7A565D806FB2A8-1772538025690
0x2af01ed18869d9b35f9a7de71c7a565d806fb2a8
- Realised P&L
- $18.4k
- Volume
- $142.0k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.9kat 0.723DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
- +$7.2kat 0.007DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?
- +$1.8kat 0.866DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.367DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
- +$583.86at 0.310DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 08:28 | Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.71 | $85.19 |
| 09-09 09:13 | Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94792 | $236.98 |
| 09-09 09:12 | Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 09-09 09:12 | Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9295 | $37.18 |
| 09-09 06:54 | Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8730758808 | $64.43 |
| 09-09 06:54 | Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5854649075 | $74.99 |
| 09-05 02:30 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 09-04 05:46 | Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $69.00 |
| 09-04 05:43 | Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.931 | $32.59 |
| 09-04 05:42 | Next DeepSeek Flash released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $32.20 |
| 09-04 05:39 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $33.99 |
| 09-04 05:39 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4592946589 | $22.96 |
| 09-04 02:23 | Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7071923077 | $183.87 |
| 09-04 02:22 | Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9675076667 | $580.50 |
| 09-04 02:18 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.492942 | $24.65 |