0x9ba93c5F49b17B1661B34D56464dD46722934612-1773153653321
0x2ad08998ed0f747d32df97ec14de0310eca7c718
- Realised P&L
- $-151.41
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $755.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.806 | 0.915 | $366.00 | +$43.68 |
| Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.885 | $265.50 | +$25.50 |
| Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.966 | $124.34 | +$17.45 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.10at 0.620Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
- +$30.00at 0.800Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
- +$24.44at 0.590Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$13.00at 0.728Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$9.98at 0.950Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 05:44 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |
| 08-25 05:34 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $3.84 |
| 08-10 21:42 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $15.85 |
| 07-31 22:35 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $144.00 |
| 07-30 22:04 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.289999971 | $7.00 |
| 07-30 22:03 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $116.00 |
| 07-30 22:03 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 07-30 21:12 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.5894684478 | $185.33 |
| 07-21 13:46 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $137.79 |
| 07-07 17:50 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $100.00 |
| 07-05 21:01 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $35.76 |
| 07-05 20:44 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.69 | $207.00 |
| 07-01 21:05 | Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.00 |
| 06-28 22:38 | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.805812 | $322.32 |
| 06-27 22:19 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $756.80 |