armstrongtheresa
0x2abf34fb3b753e517ccc046bb4d4051dade245ea
- Realised P&L
- $-9.95
- Volume
- $20.4k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $62.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 19? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $41.67 | +$9.58 |
| Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · No | 0.650 | 0.435 | $12.48 | −$6.17 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.420 | $8.42 | −$4.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.26at 0.340Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$9.75at 0.550Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$8.80at 0.690Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 Week of September 28 2026?
- +$5.26at 0.847Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 4?
- +$2.55at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 01:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on September 26? | BUY | 0.9609999989 | $19.42 |
| 01-31 14:08 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? | BUY | 0.9809999886 | $10.50 |
| 01-30 14:52 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.40 |
| 01-30 13:17 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9933996163 | $19.69 |
| 01-30 12:53 | Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.78 |
| 12-30 10:23 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999649 | $8.41 |
| 12-30 02:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998999983 | $7.86 |
| 12-29 23:54 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.9969999965 | $19.49 |
| 12-29 21:29 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.19 |
| 12-29 20:21 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $27.95 |
| 10-31 00:44 | Ethereum all time high by October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.02 |
| 10-30 22:48 | Will Solana reach $250 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.63 |
| 10-30 18:07 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.35 |
| 09-29 11:36 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999751 | $14.99 |
| 09-29 09:59 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $16.45 |