fesg3ls9x15g
0x2a9ef3ecb2d858e9aa095e3d49fba370f34b0edd
- Realised P&L
- $-63.54
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 222
- Open portfolio
- $3.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded222
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.180 | $1.84 | −$1.63 |
| Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.992 | 0.843 | $1.27 | −$0.23 |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.170 | $0.42 | −$1.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.50at 0.248Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-1.5)
- +$10.75at 0.401Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Zdenek Kolar
- +$7.68at 0.320Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03?
- +$7.62at 0.289FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5
- +$6.12at 0.370V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 07:38 | Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.01 |
| 07-02 07:24 | Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.01 |
| 07-02 07:16 | Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.01 |
| 07-02 06:01 | Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.01 |
| 07-02 05:38 | Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m? | SELL | 0.65 | $0.15 |
| 07-02 02:38 | Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m? | BUY | 0.589999882 | $1.50 |
| 07-01 23:32 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.50 |
| 07-01 20:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.67 |
| 07-01 20:33 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999856 | $1.50 |
| 06-16 19:06 | Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.50 |
| 06-16 19:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $2.45 |
| 06-16 18:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $0.06 |
| 06-15 19:36 | Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 19:35 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $1.42 |
| 06-15 18:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $0.11 |