songsong103
0x2a86daa185fe33c4457ab4d808ebbd0f8880f2ee
- Realised P&L
- $-179.85
- Volume
- $12.5k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $85.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.493 | 0.482 | $53.28 | −$1.20 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.655 | $20.30 | −$0.15 |
| Will Manchester City be deducted 20-29 Premier League points? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.022 | $5.85 | +$3.99 |
| Will Harry Kane win the most Player of the Match awards in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.021 | $4.20 | −$3.80 |
| Will Manchester City be deducted 10-19 Premier League points? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.006 | $1.49 | +$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$266.04at 0.289US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$167.31at 0.130US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
- +$85.71at 0.496Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$58.30at 0.556Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$21.36at 0.467Thunder vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 21:17 | Will Manchester City be deducted 20-29 Premier League points? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.07 |
| 10-05 21:16 | Will Manchester City be deducted 10-19 Premier League points? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 21:05 | Will Manchester City be deducted 10-19 Premier League points? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.13 |
| 10-05 21:05 | Will Manchester City be deducted 20-29 Premier League points? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 10-05 20:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.66 | $7.26 |
| 10-05 20:49 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.66 | $13.20 |
| 10-05 20:45 | Will Harry Kane win the most Player of the Match awards in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.04 | $8.00 |
| 09-15 19:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.09 | $5.76 |
| 09-10 18:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.35 | $5.95 |
| 09-10 15:20 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $11.84 |
| 08-30 11:52 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 08-30 11:18 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | SELL | 0.0281947897 | $14.41 |
| 08-28 08:16 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.065 | $1.95 |
| 08-26 18:59 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.11 | $6.71 |
| 08-26 18:57 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.104 | $0.18 |