nefariouskermit
0x2a6f7b6306c81908a1a25fbeef624d6fe1db2351
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $227.9k
- Markets traded
- 4,821
- Open portfolio
- $204.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,821
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$115.09at 0.666Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
- +$108.00at 0.568Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
- +$86.03at 0.663Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
- +$85.93at 0.628Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
- +$85.52at 0.658Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 21:58 | Solana Up or Down - October 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | BUY | 0.91888 | $18.38 |
| 10-18 21:10 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? | SELL | 0.6454041092 | $227.43 |
| 10-18 19:48 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000? | SELL | 0.0122105738 | $8.12 |
| 10-18 19:48 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000? | SELL | 0.0145 | $0.87 |
| 10-18 19:48 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000? | SELL | 0.013 | $3.19 |
| 10-18 19:48 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.60 |
| 10-18 19:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 10-18 19:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | BUY | 0.2099999695 | $1.10 |
| 10-18 19:19 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $45.99 |
| 10-18 19:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | BUY | 0.2599999846 | $1.35 |
| 10-18 18:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.26 | $1.95 |
| 10-18 18:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 10-18 18:56 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 2PM ET | BUY | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 10-18 18:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 10-18 18:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |