0x2a64e224a1192bba191d01549f58d320321fac07
0x2a64e224a1192bba191d01549f58d320321fac07
- Realised P&L
- $-1.65
- Volume
- $270.15
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $6.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.605 | $3.02 | +$1.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.225 | $1.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.235 | $1.18 | −$0.82 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.125 | $0.54 | −$1.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.58at 0.237Will Tesla say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.432Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 23:42 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 15:41 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 07:34 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 23:25 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 14:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 00:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:20 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 07:13 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 10:32 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 12:22 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 01:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 16:26 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 07:57 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 22:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 12:40 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |