0x2a64e224a1192bba191d01549f58d320321fac07
- Realised P&L
- $0.56
- Volume
- $113.23
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $10.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.480 | 0.815 | $2.85 | +$1.17 |
| Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.320 | 0.320 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.420 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.485 | $1.59 | −$0.41 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.415 | $1.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.137 | $0.96 | −$1.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.026 | $0.23 | −$1.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.62at 0.230Will Tesla say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?
- +$4.06at 0.330Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.86at 0.380Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.13at 0.630Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of July 27 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 00:41 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:39 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:16 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:11 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 04:06 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 20:05 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.284999933 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 12:05 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:44 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 19:43 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999568 | $1.15 |
| 07-31 11:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.83 |
| 07-30 21:06 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-30 05:16 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 20:25 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999626 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 07:29 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |