0x2a44098c511a6dfaff6bdb7ab8cf2156df8e4ae9
0x2a44098c511a6dfaff6bdb7ab8cf2156df8e4ae9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.42
- Volume
- $26.62
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $0.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be less than 0.0%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.265 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.97at 0.512Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?
- +$0.54at 0.650Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
- +$0.34at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.779Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$0.27at 0.788Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 20:41 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be less than 0.0%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 20:38 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 07:40 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 23:40 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 15:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 18:41 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 09:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 23:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 14:56 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |