mar1337
0x2a1bdf43ebb1dc28882fe8ee74fde47839616e41
- Realised P&L
- $5.7k
- Volume
- $299.9k
- Markets traded
- 759
- Open portfolio
- $1.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded759
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on September 19? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.375 | $1.17 | +$0.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on September 18? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$7.79 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 18? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$2.28 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on September 16? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.33 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 15? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on September 15? · Yes | 0.458 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on September 16? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.27 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 16? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on September 16? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.009Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?
- +$3.1kat 0.009Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$373.07at 0.118Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
- +$316.21at 0.051Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
- +$223.61at 0.318Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 13:17 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.035 | $0.72 |
| 09-18 13:06 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 09-18 12:42 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.014 | $1.14 |
| 09-16 17:33 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.27 | $13.05 |
| 09-16 08:52 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.00 |
| 09-16 08:51 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.00 |
| 09-16 06:57 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 16? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |
| 09-15 21:53 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.07 |
| 09-15 18:10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.34 |
| 09-15 11:09 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.0029069044 | $1.05 |
| 09-15 11:08 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 09-15 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.46 | $6.90 |
| 09-15 06:34 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.006 | $2.05 |
| 09-15 06:34 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.09 | $3.15 |
| 09-14 17:52 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.0472208372 | $7.20 |