mar1337
0x2a1bdf43ebb1dc28882fe8ee74fde47839616e41
- Realised P&L
- $6.1k
- Volume
- $226.8k
- Markets traded
- 538
- Open portfolio
- $10.97
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded538
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.105 | $5.35 | +$0.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.015 | $2.75 | −$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.009 | $1.89 | +$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.009 | $0.91 | −$0.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on August 5? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $0.07 | −$0.61 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.009Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?
- +$3.1kat 0.009Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$316.22at 0.051Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
- +$225.09at 0.313Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 13?
- +$187.67at 0.241Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 21:42 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.087254902 | $4.45 |
| 08-04 21:41 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.034507378 | $1.52 |
| 08-04 21:39 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on August 5? | BUY | 0.0047241379 | $0.68 |
| 08-04 21:38 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.06 |
| 08-04 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.11 |
| 08-04 12:59 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.34 |
| 08-04 12:40 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.05 |
| 08-04 12:38 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.96 |
| 08-04 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.59 |
| 08-04 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 08-04 11:32 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 08-04 11:31 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.1 | $3.75 |
| 08-04 10:35 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 10:33 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.1199651381 | $8.95 |
| 08-04 10:14 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.80 |