0x2a0fdEACd35e58114DA387d73eC25b4Ac3bB4FB0-1789904757497
0x2a0fdeacd35e58114da387d73ec25b4ac3bb4fb0
- Realised P&L
- $-21.14
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $5.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon? · No | 0.870 | 0.994 | $1.81 | +$0.23 |
| Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? · No | 0.856 | 0.977 | $1.76 | +$0.22 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 10%-15%? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.300 | $1.20 | −$0.32 |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.265 | $0.52 | −$0.06 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election by 40%-45%? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.320 | $0.44 | +$0.03 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.053 | $0.19 | −$0.31 |
| Will Medline (MDLN) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.071 | $0.07 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.12at 0.284Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- +$17.24at 0.432Will brawk play for Sentinels in 2027?
- +$15.00at 0.040Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?
- +$11.00at 0.180Will Credo Technology (CRDO) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?
- +$8.00at 0.410Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 01:28 | Will brawk play for Sentinels in 2027? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 11-01 09:45 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 10%-15%? | BUY | 0.63 | $10.08 |
| 11-01 07:12 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election by 40%-45%? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 10-31 18:54 | Will brawk play for Sentinels in 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $16.15 |
| 10-31 18:47 | Will brawk play for Sentinels in 2027? | BUY | 0.935026454 | $18.80 |
| 10-31 17:58 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.292 | $5.84 |
| 10-31 15:28 | Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.71 |
| 10-31 13:17 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.748 | $5.61 |
| 10-31 13:17 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.749 | $7.49 |
| 10-31 12:11 | Will Medline (MDLN) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $5.79 |
| 10-31 09:50 | Muse Charm released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3935506881 | $8.00 |
| 10-31 09:17 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 10-31 08:39 | Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-31 08:39 | Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.78 |
| 10-31 08:30 | Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million? | BUY | 0.63 | $8.82 |