0x2a070752c4a5d6c22aeb71a5f05127fa521b8eb4
0x2a070752c4a5d6c22aeb71a5f05127fa521b8eb4
- Realised P&L
- $-240.21
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $189.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · No | 0.480 | 0.475 | $98.96 | −$1.04 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.029 | $36.91 | −$8.14 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.021 | $33.35 | −$16.65 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.398 | 0.159 | $19.99 | −$30.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$159.74at 0.775Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$122.41at 0.290Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$-18.37at 0.665Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$-50.00at 0.088Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$-50.00at 0.180Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 07:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.4799999985 | $100.00 |
| 10-16 07:11 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.0353943936 | $45.05 |
| 10-16 07:06 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0307391049 | $50.00 |
| 05-17 19:04 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0419999996 | $100.00 |
| 04-28 04:27 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999961 | $50.00 |
| 04-28 04:26 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | BUY | 0.1799999976 | $50.00 |
| 04-28 04:22 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3976013932 | $50.00 |
| 04-28 04:21 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $50.00 |
| 03-23 20:19 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $608.43 |
| 03-09 15:22 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.6799999995 | $207.00 |
| 03-09 00:43 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.6499999992 | $200.00 |
| 03-09 00:42 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.4399999981 | $100.00 |
| 03-09 00:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.3295192881 | $50.00 |
| 03-09 00:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0879999984 | $50.00 |
| 03-09 00:20 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.4899514941 | $100.00 |