PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

bellona

0x29d8956c6e2112024157a9663506a9178637c4fb

Realised P&L
$-147.23
Volume
$2.8k
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$5.53

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration48.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration60.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? · Yes0.1500.050$3.33−$6.67
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1960.043$2.19−$7.81
Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1390.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? · Yes0.3100.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November 6? · Yes0.2140.000$0.00−$9.21
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? · Yes0.2860.000$0.00−$50.00
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes0.0840.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$10.00
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30? · No0.3100.000$0.00−$8.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET · Down0.1400.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 23:12Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.1389999982$10.00
10-23 17:19France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?BUY0.1499999993$10.00
10-23 17:14Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.0711476893$38.53
10-21 21:49Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?BUY0.5199999979$9.97
10-13 09:20Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?BUY0.3099999954$10.00
10-13 09:18Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.0292723479$10.00
07-20 14:12Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?BUY0.1$5.00
07-20 14:12Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?BUY0.0569999894$5.00
02-13 21:15Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETBUY0.51$9.88
01-06 21:35Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1960438354$10.00
01-04 20:08Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ETBUY0.1399999787$5.00
12-27 11:25Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?BUY0.0997243619$20.00
12-27 11:24Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?BUY0.08$10.00
11-28 09:35Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?BUY0.2862258228$50.00
11-06 18:44Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?BUY0.04$20.00