meaning19
0x29d1ca2c183ebbda8ae5241405a1dad96d04f8a3
- Realised P&L
- $156.03
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $72.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.152 | 0.040 | $55.96 | −$159.04 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.011 | $16.94 | −$83.06 |
| Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.359 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.57 |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$308.75at 0.400Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
- +$33.46at 0.130US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$14.86at 0.115Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
- +$13.57at 0.600SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
- +$10.11at 0.090Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 05:54 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.498 | $10.37 |
| 09-06 15:40 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999949 | $15.00 |
| 09-01 05:37 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 05:37 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 08-25 15:35 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $200.00 |
| 08-25 15:24 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $328.28 |
| 08-24 17:42 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0619999994 | $100.00 |
| 08-24 17:37 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.76 | $290.10 |
| 08-03 19:11 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.3899999994 | $297.74 |
| 06-18 11:14 | Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |
| 06-18 11:14 | Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 12:23 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 12:17 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2047907156 | $37.23 |
| 06-09 20:55 | Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.3881987578 | $14.38 |
| 06-09 20:54 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1099999956 | $20.00 |