xvdb
0x2985fd2c3ff4d38c5399d13e45be6817c5cdb448
- Realised P&L
- $129.09
- Volume
- $15.8k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $98.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.983 | $98.30 | +$7.30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.86 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 13? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.40 |
| Hornets vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$122.20at 0.953No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$10.30at 0.990Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$2.70at 0.999Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?
- +$2.40at 0.760Browns vs. Patriots
- +$0.10at 0.990Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 08:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 06-27 08:31 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 02-19 15:37 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.7k |
| 01-13 14:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 13? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 01-13 14:18 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.953 | $1.4k |
| 01-13 14:17 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.953 | $953.00 |
| 01-13 14:16 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.953 | $95.30 |
| 10-26 13:59 | Hornets vs. Wizards | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 10-26 13:58 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.6k |
| 10-25 14:03 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.5k |