0x2978546D4Cb4C67E0A4794bdcA1125B2249fFfBB-1773584503703
0x2978546d4cb4c67e0a4794bdca1125b2249fffbb
- Realised P&L
- $6.02
- Volume
- $499.14
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $124.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.780 | $110.50 | +$76.50 |
| Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? · Yes | 0.289 | 0.122 | $14.38 | −$19.62 |
| Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.001 | $0.06 | −$33.94 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana Win the Sinquefield Cup? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.65at 0.136Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup?
- +$6.22at 0.141Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.41at 0.708Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
- +$-1.08at 0.130Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 14:31 | Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.2899999956 | $30.00 |
| 08-23 14:31 | Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.2699999937 | $30.00 |
| 08-23 14:31 | Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.24 | $30.00 |
| 08-23 14:22 | Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.239999964 | $4.00 |
| 08-23 14:22 | Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.2699999656 | $4.00 |
| 08-23 14:22 | Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.2864197069 | $4.00 |
| 07-29 01:37 | Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 01:37 | Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 01:37 | Will Fabiano Caruana Win the Sinquefield Cup? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 08:28 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1319998955 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 08:28 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1379998965 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 08:26 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.128999904 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 08:20 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1849998631 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 08:20 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0169999831 | $1.00 |
| 03-17 03:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.40 |