Nikitka
0x29705e5c09678a97e54e03282b8ee5b4bbabe1c9
- Realised P&L
- $-216.9k
- Volume
- $4.82M
- Markets traded
- 382
- Open portfolio
- $12.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded382
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.596 | 0.695 | $7.1k | +$1.0k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.145 | $4.2k | −$4.4k |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.066 | $483.58 | +$125.37 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes | 0.167 | 0.055 | $463.22 | −$940.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.4kat 0.280Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$6.5kat 0.421Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$6.3kat 0.511US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$6.1kat 0.490Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5
- +$4.1kat 0.497Spread: United States (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 08:20 | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.44 | $501.60 |
| 09-15 08:18 | Spread: FC Sion (-1.5) | BUY | 0.71 | $504.10 |
| 09-15 08:17 | AIK vs. Mjallby AIF: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.45 | $21.15 |
| 09-14 03:26 | Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.14 | $393.11 |
| 09-14 03:06 | Djurgardens IF vs. GAIS: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $505.60 |
| 09-13 09:36 | Will Getafe CF win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.0k |
| 09-13 08:51 | Amed Sportif vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.41 | $290.28 |
| 09-13 08:48 | Pogon Szczecin vs. Wieczysta Krakow: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.39 | $83.07 |
| 09-13 08:46 | Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.73 | $503.70 |
| 09-11 18:32 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $1.5k |
| 09-11 08:21 | Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.21 | $693.43 |
| 09-11 08:20 | Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.35 | $786.33 |
| 09-11 08:18 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.0k |
| 09-11 08:17 | Venezia FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.4 | $976.00 |
| 09-11 08:17 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.38 | $1.0k |