PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Ju1ian

0x296d785b3da60b0d0f331487ab52d582126270f9

Realised P&L
$3.6k
Volume
$338.5k
Markets traded
227
Open portfolio
$5.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded227
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9730.985$3.0k+$33.23
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8900.875$984.37−$16.87
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.6500.895$894.99+$245.00
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? · Yes0.8520.952$391.84+$41.11
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7400.971$271.88+$64.68
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.0810.078$39.60−$1.71
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0100.005$10.33−$10.25
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0360.010$10.00−$25.96
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0190.004$8.71−$33.13
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.2390.004$3.52−$237.03
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0070.005$3.38−$1.58
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0120.004$0.73−$1.76
Will England win on 2026-06-17? · No0.4100.000$0.00−$41.00
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$17.00
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? · No0.7110.000$0.00−$71.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 17:24Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0813709693$41.31
10-30 10:22Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.84$425.04
10-30 02:22Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.95$9.50
10-30 02:22Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.951$104.68
10-29 21:37Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?BUY0.3192856643$63.85
10-29 21:24Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.1731329$51.94
10-29 21:19Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.1673329554$45.75
10-29 21:17Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.2839777404$6.76
10-29 21:15Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.305780461$33.43
10-29 20:45Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?BUY0.0089503019$7.20
10-29 20:44Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?BUY0.00795889$7.74
10-21 21:52Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?BUY0.5978872357$350.42
10-18 09:27Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.89$27.19
10-14 08:05Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?SELL0.014$14.09
10-10 20:20Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.973459196$2.9k