Guessrs
0x2951fdfd1d24bddff066ecad42efa2ae965d8d65
- Realised P&L
- $111.14
- Volume
- $644.23
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $153.53
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar17.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Illinois" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.996 | $43.54 | +$1.55 |
| Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7? · No | 0.982 | 0.972 | $39.69 | −$0.43 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7? · No | 0.986 | 0.973 | $37.59 | −$0.52 |
| Will Trump say "Maduro" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? · Yes | 0.990 | 1.000 | $32.71 | +$0.31 |
| Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.28at 0.390Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?
- +$25.45at 0.440Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?
- +$24.48at 0.290Will Piper Sandler (PIPR) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$17.99at 0.526Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?
- +$4.09at 0.924No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:04 | Will Trump say "Maduro" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.9899999918 | $32.40 |
| 11-01 22:19 | Will Trump say "Alaska" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.9699999997 | $34.11 |
| 11-01 22:05 | Will Trump say "Illinois" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa? | BUY | 0.96 | $41.99 |
| 11-01 20:00 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7? | BUY | 0.9859999998 | $38.11 |
| 11-01 20:00 | Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7? | BUY | 0.9819999795 | $40.12 |
| 11-01 02:00 | Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.12 |
| 10-30 21:00 | Will SB Energy IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9792763617 | $36.61 |
| 10-30 19:40 | Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $18M and $19.5M? | BUY | 0.9628243799 | $37.50 |
| 10-30 19:40 | Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $16.5M and $18M? | BUY | 0.986 | $19.72 |
| 10-30 11:52 | Will Piper Sandler (PIPR) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 11:46 | Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $6.25B? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.89 |
| 10-30 10:00 | Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%? | BUY | 0.99 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 09:00 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? | BUY | 0.4399999947 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 09:00 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%? | BUY | 0.98 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 09:00 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%? | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $20.00 |