Centavero
0x292325e7da20aaa49b0dca427d81913b99ee68ee
- Realised P&L
- $-302.11
- Volume
- $33.9k
- Markets traded
- 619
- Open portfolio
- $41.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded619
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.71at 0.352Spurs vs. Knicks
- +$12.56at 0.447Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
- +$12.31at 0.497Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
- +$11.54at 0.537Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox
- +$11.54at 0.537Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 02:00 | Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 10-29 23:42 | Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.155 | $1.55 |
| 10-28 20:03 | Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.092 | $1.84 |
| 10-28 19:55 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | SELL | 0.1355162995 | $13.59 |
| 10-28 03:02 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.1096511099 | $11.00 |
| 07-20 23:34 | San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.41 | $4.10 |
| 07-19 21:25 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | SELL | 0.9975 | $9.98 |
| 07-19 16:34 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3175 | $3.17 |
| 07-18 20:03 | Will France vs. England end in a draw? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 07-15 18:02 | Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.335 | $3.35 |
| 07-14 16:40 | Will France vs. Spain end in a draw? | BUY | 0.315 | $3.15 |
| 07-11 14:02 | Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2575 | $2.58 |
| 07-09 16:16 | Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 07-06 16:43 | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 15:09 | Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |