m123432
0x28e39f846cf0ce3b1de7746269e0a924eb7092ce
- Realised P&L
- $-155.65
- Volume
- $9.3k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $450.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.914 | 0.945 | $450.91 | +$14.96 |
| Will Trump say "Border" 15+ times during remarks in New York? · No | 0.638 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump praise Andy Burnham in August? · No | 0.171 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.30at 0.597Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score
- +$25.79at 0.602Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$18.78at 0.617Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score
- +$15.64at 0.820Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
- +$14.19at 0.610US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 21:57 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.9199999998 | $235.95 |
| 09-06 21:39 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.9062535437 | $200.00 |
| 08-27 03:38 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $96.84 |
| 08-14 21:22 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.8495850575 | $86.61 |
| 08-14 13:01 | Will Trump say "Border" 15+ times during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.6383403152 | $20.00 |
| 08-13 23:39 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $68.43 |
| 08-13 14:33 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.8363857478 | $39.20 |
| 08-11 22:38 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BUY | 0.6949103809 | $58.71 |
| 08-11 22:33 | Will Trump praise Andy Burnham in August? | BUY | 0.1709999354 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 21:07 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $30.00 |
| 07-27 16:20 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.3099999952 | $26.49 |
| 07-27 10:13 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.937 | $27.40 |
| 07-25 11:36 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7550518115 | $22.08 |
| 07-25 08:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.961 | $22.04 |
| 07-21 17:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.8199999939 | $18.80 |