0x28c9ad776e10d3a107bec1dc16ea88e2bbe17b7b
0x28c9ad776e10d3a107bec1dc16ea88e2bbe17b7b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.16
- Volume
- $301.87
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $4.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.675 | $1.99 | +$0.99 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? · No | 0.630 | 0.660 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? · No | 0.530 | 0.525 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.095 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.69at 0.260US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.61at 0.308S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 17:27 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 08:15 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:01 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 04:01 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2359999519 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 20:01 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:00 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:59 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:56 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:55 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:28 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 06:25 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:23 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 17:16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |