Thomas9876
0x284c257f4e82a76ae3a6cddc6a9c97ecccc7ecfc
- Realised P&L
- $-392.70
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $54.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.354 | 0.066 | $54.90 | −$239.56 |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? · No | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x China tariff agreement by November 10? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on October 14? · Up | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.61at 0.510Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?
- +$1.07at 0.840US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
- +$0.47at 0.942Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$0.24at 0.966Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?
- +$-0.03at 0.995Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-22 11:24 | Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3539891799 | $294.46 |
| 11-22 11:12 | Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3213108181 | $274.86 |
| 11-05 01:45 | Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4075059689 | $348.59 |
| 11-03 08:16 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | SELL | 0.97 | $348.59 |
| 11-03 03:10 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9719999998 | $349.31 |
| 11-03 03:08 | Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections? | SELL | 0.9521115351 | $349.31 |
| 11-02 04:31 | Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections? | BUY | 0.9838846497 | $360.97 |
| 11-02 04:29 | Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | SELL | 0.988 | $360.97 |
| 10-31 01:22 | Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | BUY | 0.9929999987 | $362.80 |
| 10-31 00:54 | Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.9911385876 | $362.81 |
| 10-31 00:53 | Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9971804424 | $365.02 |
| 10-31 00:51 | 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | SELL | 0.996 | $365.01 |
| 10-31 00:49 | 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | BUY | 0.9989999986 | $366.12 |
| 10-31 00:42 | Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? | SELL | 0.992 | $8.97 |
| 10-31 00:42 | Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.89 |