0x283b870b5a87e0a1daf7f54294ef1f4afae1f5a4
0x283b870b5a87e0a1daf7f54294ef1f4afae1f5a4
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $372.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.016Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.0kat 0.045Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
- +$692.49at 0.190Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$236.59at 0.045Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
- +$84.88at 0.045Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 21:25 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.82 | $764.24 |
| 07-06 12:04 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.009 | $9.82 |
| 07-06 12:04 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.002 | $2.18 |
| 05-26 12:53 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.888 | $968.44 |
| 12-17 22:15 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | SELL | 0.0400909091 | $44.10 |
| 12-17 02:11 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.96 |
| 12-17 02:11 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? | SELL | 0.08 | $74.40 |