0x282E29ba8b717C9941f49e40d6cd7970aeE4e8e6-1775340610819
0x282e29ba8b717c9941f49e40d6cd7970aee4e8e6
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $68.2k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $5.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$601.60at 0.851Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$476.61at 0.887Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$221.35at 0.886US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$100.61at 0.863US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$90.00at 0.100Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 11:30 | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.851 | $67.25 |
| 08-02 21:02 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.84 | $28.20 |
| 08-02 20:00 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.79 | $34.76 |
| 08-02 00:05 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.74 | $11.10 |
| 08-01 23:56 | Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 08-01 23:45 | Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7 | $31.57 |
| 08-01 12:18 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.859 | $70.01 |
| 08-01 12:13 | Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | BUY | 0.82 | $30.01 |
| 08-01 12:08 | Will Oliver Junk win the next Hannover Region presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $30.02 |
| 08-01 12:02 | Will Peter Karst win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.88 | $8.80 |
| 08-01 11:57 | Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.66 | $50.03 |
| 07-30 06:36 | Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | BUY | 0.7 | $43.27 |
| 07-30 06:24 | Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 07-30 06:21 | Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.07 | $8.84 |
| 07-30 06:16 | Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | SELL | 0.89 | $55.18 |