0x282229fc1a193ffa44a195f5e28628cdd321a19f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.22
- Volume
- $60.08
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $15.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.885 | $2.98 | +$0.79 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $2.45 | +$0.26 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.710 | 0.745 | $2.30 | +$0.11 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.670 | $2.26 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.545 | $2.02 | −$0.17 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.485 | $1.54 | −$0.65 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.910 | $1.40 | +$0.20 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.790 | 0.165 | $0.46 | −$1.73 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.690 | 0.110 | $0.35 | −$1.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.03at 0.680Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Another pandemic before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 11:57 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.6899999118 | $2.19 |
| 08-05 03:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.7099999157 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 19:49 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999406 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 11:46 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999542 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 03:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6499997477 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 19:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 10:01 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999118 | $2.19 |
| 08-02 21:08 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.779999987 | $1.20 |
| 08-02 00:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7899999531 | $2.19 |
| 08-01 16:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999503 | $2.19 |
| 08-01 02:04 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 17:59 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999262 | $2.21 |
| 07-31 09:58 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 22:19 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999262 | $2.21 |
| 07-30 09:46 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |