0x2821D5CE97Bc9A3a03E74eC807AB0e0B05bb7908-1770097065418
0x2821d5ce97bc9a3a03e74ec807ab0e0b05bb7908
- Realised P&L
- $175.39
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $1.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.329 | 0.009 | $1.16 | −$38.84 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET · Down | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.09 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET · Down | 0.289 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.92 |
| Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET · Up | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.54 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$235.51at 0.044Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$38.96at 0.250Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$12.41at 0.473Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
- +$-26.45at 0.093Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-22 06:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.6699999732 | $3.90 |
| 03-22 06:42 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $3.55 |
| 03-14 22:04 | Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.3286724403 | $40.00 |
| 03-12 03:09 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.0928795445 | $30.00 |
| 02-23 06:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | BUY | 0.09 | $0.16 |
| 02-23 06:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $4.85 |
| 02-23 02:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $4.99 |
| 02-21 22:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $12.20 |
| 02-21 22:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $4.86 |
| 02-21 22:27 | Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? | SELL | 0.736945 | $58.96 |
| 02-21 22:24 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $15.00 |
| 02-09 07:32 | Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? | BUY | 0.2799999888 | $12.00 |
| 02-09 02:18 | Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $20.00 |
| 02-09 01:46 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | SELL | 0.664238336 | $252.28 |
| 02-03 06:16 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.0441545126 | $16.77 |