0x281cb080388cc0ed7f973952114b2313e5f458f0
0x281cb080388cc0ed7f973952114b2313e5f458f0
- Realised P&L
- $-4.93
- Volume
- $124.41
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · No | 0.350 | 0.220 | $0.96 | −$0.56 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.140 | $0.58 | −$0.94 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.410 | 0.038 | $0.14 | −$1.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.04at 0.237Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$3.23at 0.320US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$2.59at 0.370Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.44at 0.389S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$2.38at 0.395Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 21:37 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $480 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999197 | $1.52 |
| 09-19 11:03 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.3499999309 | $1.52 |
| 09-19 02:17 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.52 |
| 09-17 08:00 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999053 | $1.52 |
| 09-16 23:46 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $172.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999411 | $1.52 |
| 09-16 15:46 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7299999232 | $1.52 |
| 09-16 07:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.52 |
| 09-11 02:43 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999128 | $1.52 |
| 09-10 18:39 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.2999999803 | $1.52 |
| 09-10 09:42 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998879 | $1.52 |
| 09-10 01:03 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.6099999117 | $1.52 |
| 09-09 13:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6199999755 | $1.52 |
| 09-08 18:50 | Will Chewy say "Amazon" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.76 | $1.52 |
| 09-08 06:23 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 8? | BUY | 0.2799999705 | $1.52 |
| 09-04 00:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.5399999929 | $1.52 |