lllebets
0x2807be8885c8f1cdfa177bacd27d6763c3bd4e85
- Realised P&L
- $504.29
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $47.75
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$491.48at 0.078Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$74.16at 0.360Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on September 5?
- +$60.48at 0.675Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 6?
- +$42.00at 0.662Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 8?
- +$19.71at 0.280Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 19:51 | Will Ukraine win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.06 | $40.00 |
| 08-20 18:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.28 | $15.32 |
| 08-06 22:10 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.25 |
| 07-23 17:59 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 07-23 17:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 07-19 11:27 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.58 | $28.99 |
| 07-19 11:22 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.5826 | $29.13 |
| 07-15 20:33 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.0749999983 | $40.00 |
| 07-08 07:08 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $17.60 |
| 07-07 17:17 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $14.10 |
| 07-06 21:01 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $15.40 |
| 07-06 21:00 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.278198033 | $16.69 |
| 07-06 21:00 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $39.05 |
| 07-06 21:00 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $42.60 |