0x27C5481F78ED3a57810269b3b7871e6185DA9B5D-1750803602414
0x27c5481f78ed3a57810269b3b7871e6185da9b5d
- Realised P&L
- $-804.81
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $93.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-18.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.160 | $86.59 | −$173.41 |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.125 | $7.13 | −$4.85 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.90at 0.411Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$4.70at 0.603Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.59at 0.562Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
- +$0.59at 0.361Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$-2.00at 0.146Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:17 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $14.25 |
| 09-13 08:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999993 | $9.00 |
| 09-13 08:53 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $57.00 |
| 09-02 19:39 | No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31? | BUY | 0.2099999863 | $11.98 |
| 07-19 08:21 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5909999975 | $7.00 |
| 07-19 08:18 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $5.77 |
| 07-19 08:17 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $2.00 |
| 05-24 21:39 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998807 | $1.32 |
| 05-22 22:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.023 | $1.15 |
| 05-21 19:39 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 19:38 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY | 0.1429999743 | $4.00 |
| 05-16 20:55 | Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999503 | $4.00 |
| 05-16 20:25 | Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.3989999662 | $4.00 |
| 05-16 20:23 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 05-03 20:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |