hol-div
0x273dbcb143b7759c3ce2b6bac8a511ffa49fd0ed
- Realised P&L
- $-7.3k
- Volume
- $86.5k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $2.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.637 | 0.166 | $1.3k | −$3.8k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.065 | $1.1k | −$4.1k |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.201 | 0.046 | $311.72 | −$1.0k |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.8kat 0.237Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.8kat 0.527Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-11 21:00 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999994 | $250.16 |
| 03-11 21:00 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6442086282 | $750.00 |
| 03-11 21:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299065402 | $400.00 |
| 03-11 20:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2399920803 | $300.00 |
| 03-11 20:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.052 | $100.00 |
| 03-11 18:40 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1989554837 | $200.00 |
| 03-11 18:39 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6447652615 | $1000.00 |
| 03-11 18:39 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3297665928 | $500.00 |
| 03-11 18:39 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2298282608 | $400.00 |
| 03-11 18:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $100.00 |
| 03-11 17:53 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1974926335 | $500.00 |
| 03-11 17:53 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6416803946 | $1000.00 |
| 03-11 17:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299476291 | $825.00 |
| 03-11 13:15 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3297804899 | $300.32 |
| 03-11 13:15 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999986 | $100.00 |