0x27357E72Dc5953ad6a20E946Db89512F4a9cbf01-1762398344308
0x27357e72dc5953ad6a20e946db89512f4a9cbf01
- Realised P&L
- $-665.99
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $15.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 9? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.790 | $15.80 | +$1.20 |
| Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage · Xtreme Gaming | 0.482 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.85 |
| Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner · Natus Vincere | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.173 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.20 |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner · Team Falcons | 0.313 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage · MOUZ | 0.451 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$182.08 |
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner · Tundra Esports | 0.489 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$192.49 |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner · PARIVISION | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage · Vici Gaming | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$108.00at 0.640Will Kast win by 20% to 25%?
- +$80.71at 0.775Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted (BO5)
- +$44.95at 0.830Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
- +$38.77at 0.615Will Johannes Kaiser win at least 19% of votes in the first round?
- +$21.20at 0.360Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 12:00 | Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 9? | BUY | 0.73 | $14.60 |
| 09-15 15:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.20 |
| 09-14 13:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 03-11 13:57 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.5 | $92.49 |
| 03-11 13:54 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.4799999983 | $100.00 |
| 03-10 14:33 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.4824389179 | $30.85 |
| 03-10 00:49 | Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-03-09? | SELL | 0.1409936015 | $30.85 |
| 03-09 23:12 | Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-03-09? | BUY | 0.6 | $131.28 |
| 03-09 19:28 | Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.4507525684 | $182.08 |
| 03-09 18:59 | Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.5779828383 | $100.00 |
| 03-09 18:58 | Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | SELL | 0.4307122983 | $77.40 |
| 03-09 18:56 | Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | SELL | 0.4394623656 | $40.87 |
| 03-09 18:44 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $265.68 |
| 03-09 18:32 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.8299999994 | $220.74 |
| 03-09 18:04 | Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | BUY | 0.7333994053 | $200.00 |