0x271E8ced7085d5b59e59c0955A1C5959d7bb1597-1769126628763
0x271e8ced7085d5b59e59c0955a1c5959d7bb1597
- Realised P&L
- $-18.99
- Volume
- $729.49
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $18.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.989 | $9.88 | +$2.88 |
| Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.650 | 1.000 | $7.69 | +$2.69 |
| Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.105 | $1.05 | −$2.65 |
| Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.70 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.90 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.30 |
| Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.37at 0.327Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$4.70at 0.530Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?
- +$4.20at 0.580Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$2.25at 0.690Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$2.02at 0.798Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 21:37 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.95 |
| 07-06 21:37 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.74 | $11.56 |
| 07-06 18:17 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 18:17 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 18:13 | Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 18:09 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 18:08 | Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | SELL | 0.954 | $9.54 |
| 05-28 15:02 | Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.57 | $5.70 |
| 05-28 15:01 | Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.69 | $6.90 |
| 05-28 15:00 | Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 05-28 14:59 | Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 05-28 14:59 | Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 03-18 10:19 | Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 03-18 10:18 | Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? | BUY | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 03-18 10:18 | Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |