0x271e869a3fD2250B0a8914C6299A364c163E584C-1767986192900
0x271e869a3fd2250b0a8914c6299a364c163e584c
- Realised P&L
- $-56.16
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $4.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.85at 0.510Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?
- +$2.88at 0.680Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?
- +$1.50at 0.300US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$1.10at 0.230Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
- +$0.70at 0.230Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 17:00 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.162499936 | $2.00 |
| 07-08 03:07 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 00:36 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 00:32 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.00104465 | $1.04 |
| 07-03 09:09 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |
| 07-03 08:59 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-03 08:57 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | SELL | 0.161 | $3.22 |
| 02-25 03:50 | Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 02-25 03:41 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.35 |
| 02-23 19:11 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.189 | $3.78 |
| 01-22 13:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 01-15 01:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.119999952 | $2.00 |
| 01-15 01:06 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $3.37 |
| 01-13 23:05 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.15 |
| 01-13 20:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |