PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x271e869a3fD2250B0a8914C6299A364c163E584C-1767986192900

0x271e869a3fd2250b0a8914c6299a364c163e584c

Realised P&L
$-56.16
Volume
$3.8k
Markets traded
33
Open portfolio
$4.40

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded33
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
OpenAI acquired before 2027? · Yes0.0700.041$2.90$2.10
Anthropic acquired before 2027? · Yes0.1100.037$1.50$2.90
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00$3.15
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$2.00
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? · Yes0.1620.000$0.00$2.00
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? · No0.2800.000$0.00$3.64
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$1.40
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? · No0.3500.000$0.00$3.50
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$2.00
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? · No0.1900.000$0.00$1.90
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00$1.20
Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$2.55
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31? · No0.2300.000$0.00$5.00
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31? · Yes0.2240.000$0.00$7.00
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00$1.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-10 17:00Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.162499936$2.00
07-08 03:07Will France win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.63$1.00
07-04 00:36Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.001$1.00
07-04 00:32Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.00104465$1.04
07-03 09:09Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.4099999446$2.00
07-03 08:59Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.001$1.00
07-03 08:57AI bubble burst in 2026?SELL0.161$3.22
02-25 03:50Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?BUY0.07$1.40
02-25 03:41Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.027$1.35
02-23 19:11AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.189$3.78
01-22 13:23Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?SELL0.26$2.60
01-15 01:07Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?BUY0.119999952$2.00
01-15 01:06US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?SELL0.33$3.37
01-13 23:05Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?BUY0.21$3.15
01-13 20:49Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?BUY0.13$1.30