TheBigMuscle
0x270afb53118b0f5a9d706f4d90b82bb877d27b78
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $854.2k
- Markets traded
- 622
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded622
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.017Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$2.7kat 0.141Will Wisconsin be the closest state?
- +$2.2kat 0.232Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
- +$1.6kat 0.318Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?
- +$1.5kat 0.274Will Harris win New Jersey by 10+ points?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:43 | Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0113125 | $0.91 |
| 07-31 17:04 | Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9583143928 | $166.12 |
| 07-31 16:57 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.97 |
| 07-31 16:50 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.057 | $3.00 |
| 07-23 23:03 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $7.19 |
| 07-23 22:29 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.26 | $28.40 |
| 07-23 01:54 | Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.64 | $42.21 |
| 07-23 01:50 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.29 | $62.38 |
| 07-20 08:12 | Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.89 | $446.97 |
| 07-20 08:11 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $279.65 |
| 07-20 08:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.72 |
| 07-20 08:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.063 | $11.34 |
| 07-20 08:00 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.54 |
| 07-20 08:00 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.18 |
| 07-20 08:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.067 | $12.06 |