PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x26Bd38cC22a60d1c3E2131c6B4A8284cE2a42C54-1774494542978

0x26bd38cc22a60d1c3e2131c6b4a8284ce2a42c54

Realised P&L
$240.76
Volume
$16.7k
Markets traded
186
Open portfolio
$3.73

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded186
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration83.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · Yes0.6500.125$3.13−$13.13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 29? · Yes0.0400.060$0.60+$0.20
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · Yes0.6800.000$0.00−$6.80
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00−$2.20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yes0.4800.000$0.00−$4.80
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0790.000$0.00−$1.58
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$1.80
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21? · Yes0.6790.000$0.00−$10.15
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00−$2.60
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$1.70
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$2.00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? · Yes0.4120.000$0.00−$2.40
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00−$2.48
Ebola case in the US by June 30? · Yes0.1320.000$0.00−$5.27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$4.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 09:43Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?BUY0.207$2.07
07-31 01:47U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?BUY0.68$6.80
07-07 18:02Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?SELL0.98$9.80
07-07 16:27Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?SELL0.23$5.23
07-07 16:16Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY0.2199999727$5.00
06-30 18:06Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?BUY0.6499999935$10.00
06-20 11:40 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?BUY0.14$2.80
06-20 10:02 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?BUY0.14$1.40
06-19 18:12 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?BUY0.48$4.80
06-14 09:50US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14BUY0.33$6.60
06-12 08:28Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.26$2.60
06-12 03:54Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?SELL0.97$9.69
06-12 03:52Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?BUY0.94$9.39
05-15 17:57Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?SELL0.996$19.92
05-15 14:43Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY0.18$0.31