0x26bBA8cAFbE48a8D164E04E058AA6a31F9dC8337-1771795036043
0x26bba8cafbe48a8d164e04e058aa6a31f9dc8337
- Realised P&L
- $-194.59
- Volume
- $34.3k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $210.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.065 | $93.30 | −$106.70 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.070 | $65.04 | −$34.96 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.025 | $51.69 | −$98.31 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? · No | 0.243 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? · Yes | 0.158 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$431.51at 0.208Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$153.08at 0.660Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$13.41at 0.390Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.003Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
- +$-50.00at 0.725US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 12:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 05:53 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 05:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 06-02 05:35 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | BUY | 0.243771397 | $100.00 |
| 05-22 06:18 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? | BUY | 0.2428938962 | $200.00 |
| 05-22 06:05 | Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.1083988203 | $100.00 |
| 05-20 18:06 | Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 05-20 18:01 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7362390453 | $601.51 |
| 05-12 18:12 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999967 | $50.00 |
| 05-11 18:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899999986 | $100.00 |
| 05-11 07:19 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.074 | $150.00 |
| 04-16 02:41 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2184572534 | $100.00 |
| 04-16 02:41 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.986 | $103.08 |
| 04-14 14:21 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1948503827 | $70.00 |
| 04-07 15:42 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.6599999978 | $300.00 |