0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81
- Realised P&L
- $13.3k
- Volume
- $1.31M
- Markets traded
- 561
- Open portfolio
- $49.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded561
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 22? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.210 | $37.14 | −$8.84 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31? · No | 0.003 | 0.013 | $12.15 | +$9.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.042Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on August 30?
- +$3.0kat 0.168Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?
- +$2.1kat 0.005Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on August 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.121Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
- +$1.2kat 0.046Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or below on July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 14:33 | Will Grüne win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.998 | $256.76 |
| 09-21 14:33 | Will Grüne win 40-44 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.998 | $393.75 |
| 09-21 13:24 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.64 | $7.26 |
| 09-21 13:23 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.77 | $193.71 |
| 09-21 13:21 | Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.0k |
| 09-21 13:04 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.015 | $1.70 |
| 09-21 12:44 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.46 |
| 09-21 12:36 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.0947035158 | $5.41 |
| 09-21 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.0088940433 | $4.08 |
| 09-21 12:15 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.0838580247 | $4.89 |
| 09-21 11:38 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 22? | BUY | 0.26 | $45.98 |
| 09-21 11:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C or below on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 09-21 11:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 09-21 11:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.98 | $16.66 |
| 09-21 11:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |