valera
0x26a9ece876496574ca5a98dd694f6f6eb191c317
- Realised P&L
- $-881.69
- Volume
- $31.9k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $785.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.661 | 0.585 | $517.53 | −$67.05 |
| Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.535 | $267.50 | −$32.50 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.15 |
| Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.62 |
| Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$855.00at 0.829Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$500.00at 0.049Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$194.00at 0.952Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
- +$190.19at 0.740Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
- +$2.79at 0.991Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 10:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $297.00 |
| 07-31 10:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $297.00 |
| 07-14 19:32 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.39 | $195.00 |
| 07-10 20:01 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.7325 | $115.73 |
| 06-17 19:34 | Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.62 |
| 06-17 19:34 | Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.62 |