ricorodmerguezo
0x266f3e4f9b826f28f565a25794ce9f74809a9f85
- Realised P&L
- $954.48
- Volume
- $409.6k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $422.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.082 | $305.24 | +$105.24 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $58.33 | −$41.67 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.431 | 0.167 | $38.64 | −$61.36 |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.002 | $14.72 | −$73.58 |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.004 | $5.25 | −$94.74 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$172.05 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.00 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.090US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$871.40at 0.527Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
- +$334.05at 0.638Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
- +$208.40at 0.324Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
- +$179.45at 0.548Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 08:46 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? | BUY | 0.0237991353 | $100.00 |
| 04-19 17:11 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $123.00 |
| 04-16 12:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $954.36 |
| 04-16 12:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $464.00 |
| 04-13 17:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.2482411633 | $500.00 |
| 04-12 17:29 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.1391881109 | $159.78 |
| 04-11 11:31 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0537288233 | $200.00 |
| 04-08 06:19 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1742250578 | $200.00 |
| 04-08 06:09 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.996 | $2.0k |
| 04-07 12:24 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $88.30 |
| 04-07 12:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.86 |
| 04-07 12:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $0.86 |
| 04-07 12:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $9.41 |
| 04-07 12:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $9.27 |
| 04-07 12:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $8.57 |