0x263e444ae0a77a3eeb63fa91629aaf87ee89c4bc
- Realised P&L
- $-335.88
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $21.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-23.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.620 | 1.000 | $16.13 | +$6.13 |
| Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31? · No | 0.420 | 0.415 | $4.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.407 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 3.5 Corners · Over | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.72at 0.671Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2?
- +$10.00at 0.130Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
- +$8.56at 0.580Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 11?
- +$6.86at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7?
- +$3.64at 0.585Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:28 | Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31? | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 18:44 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5699999555 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 12:24 | Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 3.5 Corners | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 08:22 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4074999929 | $20.00 |
| 06-13 18:34 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 06-13 18:22 | Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6199999864 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 18:13 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 06-08 08:50 | Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2299999931 | $20.00 |
| 05-28 08:36 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.4299999961 | $20.00 |
| 02-14 18:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 15? | BUY | 0.3995578227 | $30.00 |
| 02-14 13:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.13 |
| 02-13 17:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $20.00 |
| 02-12 19:03 | Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? | SELL | 0.62 | $21.10 |
| 02-12 17:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? | BUY | 0.5753968124 | $10.00 |
| 02-12 17:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? | BUY | 0.6 | $10.00 |