F.HD
0x2638e06e0b713249703e62d57f13cc3d0a472ca8
- Realised P&L
- $-21.4k
- Volume
- $461.6k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.366 | 0.180 | $1.3k | −$1.4k |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.395 | $610.63 | −$363.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.125Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$1.6kat 0.864Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$1.4kat 0.740Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
- +$583.78at 0.562US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$92.45at 0.100Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-24 07:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $4.8k |
| 05-23 19:46 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $800.80 |
| 05-23 19:02 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999995 | $1.0k |
| 05-23 19:00 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999999 | $4.0k |
| 03-25 11:25 | Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.0450868623 | $142.29 |
| 03-25 11:23 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.72 | $998.14 |
| 03-25 11:23 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | SELL | 0.1190427984 | $592.45 |
| 03-16 11:04 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.1004655756 | $500.00 |
| 03-04 07:40 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.6920657429 | $500.00 |
| 03-03 07:19 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.8043167279 | $533.94 |
| 03-03 07:17 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.0612281542 | $1.7k |
| 03-03 07:16 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.002 | $72.30 |
| 01-30 09:24 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $1000.00 |
| 01-30 09:23 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $1000.00 |
| 01-16 18:51 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.15 | $75.00 |